Why the 2030s Will Be the Decade of the Moon, Mars, and Mining

(3-4 minute read)

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Not long ago, launching anything into space cost the same as a luxury yacht. In the early 2000s, putting a single kilogram into orbit could cost up to $40,000. Only superpowers and defence budgets could afford meaningful access. Today, SpaceX can do it for around $1,200 per kilo using reusable Falcon 9 rockets, and Starship may bring that below $200 once fully operational.

That kind of drop changes everything.

Over the past year, announcements have come thick and fast. Elon Musk has talked openly about Mars flights. Jeff Bezos has pushed infrastructure in orbit. China and Russia have confirmed plans for a lunar base. India is taking up crewed missions. NASA has committed to Artemis. Space is no longer a stunt or a statement of national pride. It is becoming industrialised.

Launch Costs Are Collapsing

SpaceX is the main disruptor of launch economics. The cost per kilo to low Earth orbit has fallen sharply:

1980s Shuttle Era: $54,000 per kg
Early 2000s (Ariane, Atlas, Delta): $20,000 to $30,000 per kg
Falcon 9 (reusable): about $2,500 per kg
Falcon Heavy: about $1,500 per kg
Starship (projected): $200 to $800 per kg

Reusability, rapid turnaround and mass production are driving the shift. And it is no longer only Musk. Others are following.

United States: Moon First, Mars Next

NASA's Artemis Programme is active, funded, and advancing.

Artemis I was an uncrewed test in 2022.
Artemis II, a crewed lunar flyby, is expected in 2026.
Artemis III is targeting a crewed lunar landing in 2027-28, using SpaceX's Starship as the lander.
The Artemis Base Camp is planned for the late 2020s, including power systems, habitats and rovers.

SpaceX has not backed away from its own vision. Musk still suggests that crews could head to Mars before 2030, with cargo missions possibly earlier.

China: Focused and Quiet

The Chinese space agency is less vocal than NASA, but no less ambitious.

The Tiangong space station is active and expanding.
A crewed Moon landing is planned before 2030.
With Russia, China has announced an International Lunar Research Station, to begin construction in the early 2030s, possibly before the Artemis Base Camp is finished.

Crucially, the Chinese programme is not tied to unstable political cycles. When they set a timeline, they move toward it.

India: From Underdog to Major Power

India surprised the world in 2023 when it landed a probe near the Moon’s south pole, something even NASA has not done.

Next steps are funded and scheduled:

Gaganyaan will send Indian astronauts into space within two to three years.
A partnership with Japan will launch a joint lunar lander.
India is also positioning itself as a low-cost launch provider and a potential contributor to lunar infrastructure.

They are not trying to catch up. They are trying to lead.

Bezos and Orbital Expansion

Jeff Bezos does not want to live on Mars. He wants to move civilisation into space.

Blue Origin is working on:

New Glenn, a heavy reusable rocket.
Orbital Reef, a commercial station to succeed the ISS.
Blue Moon, a cargo and crew lander for NASA and private missions.

The long-term plan is to move heavy industry off Earth and treat orbit as real estate.

Europe, Japan and Private Innovators

ESA, JAXA, and firms such as Rocket Lab, Relativity Space, Sierra Space and Axiom Space are contributing to a wave of innovation. They are building habitat modules, fast-launch vehicles, orbital fuel depots and 3D printed rockets. The field is widening quickly.

When Will We Have a Moon Base?

Based on current infrastructure, funding, hardware, and political momentum, the first permanent lunar base is expected around 2028 to 2032.

Artemis Base Camp construction will begin in the late 2020s.
The China–Russia base plan may overlap or even compete.
Private actors like Blue Origin could provide supporting infrastructure.

A permanent human presence on the Moon is almost certain before 2033.

Mars Will Follow

Mars is more difficult. Radiation, habitat weight, fuel production, psychology and supplies matter. But the biggest obstacle has always been cost to orbit, and that barrier is collapsing.

First crewed Mars landing: 2033 to 2037.
First semi-permanent base: 2040 to 2045.

If Starship reaches even half its projected payload and reusability, Mars cargo runs could begin before 2030. The first people to live, and possibly die, on Mars are already alive today.

Asteroid Mining: The Economic Switch

Asteroid mining has always sounded theoretical. Gold, platinum, water ice and helium-3 exist in abundance, but launch costs made the economics impossible. That is changing rapidly.

Projected timeline:

Robotic retrieval missions before 2035.
First return of asteroid material around 2040.
Off-world fuel harvesting for lunar and Mars missions.

Water from asteroids can become hydrogen and oxygen for rocket fuel. That eliminates the need to haul propellant from Earth and triggers an entirely new economy.

The Takeaway

Space is no longer slowing down. It is accelerating. The era of state-only exploration is over. The era of permanent infrastructure has begun. The Moon is the next step. Mars is no longer theoretical. Asteroids will fund the ladder between them.

Historians will not say the Space Age ended in 1972. They will say it started in the late 2020s.

And this time, we are not just planting flags. We are staying.